Scenario 1 'Business as usual'
Limited development, 0-5 GW in 2030


Policy


There is a strong belief in Norway that new interconnectors and export of balancing services will bring higher electricity prices to the country. Therefore, the policy measures adopted in 2011-2012 are to ensure cheap and reliable electricity supply. No incentives for large scale investments in new interconnectors and pumped storage capacities are given.

In addition, the relatively low social acceptance in Norway for constructing new generation capacities and power lines is expected to persist the coming years. Local communities and organizations for tourism and environment protection will gain a larger influence on political debates and decisions.

Meanwhile in NW Europe, countries investing in wind power and other non regulated energy sources will go alone and build their own balancing capacities.



Market


No major decisions are made at EU and North European level towards the integration of electricity markets. In Norway, there will be low electricity prices during periods, in regions with significant small scale hydro generation and low demand.



Transmission


No incentives for large scale investments in new interconnectors exist. The capacity of the Norwegian transmission grid will not increase substantially due to strong opposition from local communities, environment protection and other groups. The existing bottlenecks in the system are not likely to be removed. Interconnectors are built only to cover the risks of not having enough water in reservoirs during extremely dry years with cold and long winters. The planned interconnectors with Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany [53] will be built, increasing the export capacity to approximately 5 GW.


Generation


The hydropower system is upgraded to cover the internal increase in demand. The increase in hydropower generation will come from building numerous small scale units and the planned onshore wind power farms and also in upgrading of the most cost-effective hydroelectric plants.

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